UCLA Real Estate Wire

UCLA News Room: "UCLA model ID’s areas that should have priority for vaccine, other COVID-19 help"

"The research data demonstrate that neighborhoods characterized by significant clustering of racial and ethnic minorities, low-income households and unmet medical needs are most vulnerable to COVID-19 infection, specifically areas in and around South Los Angeles and the eastern portion of the San Fernando Valley. Communities along the coast and in the northwestern part of the county, which are disproportionately white and higher-income, were found to be the least vulnerable.

'The model we have includes specific resource vulnerabilities that can guide public health officials and local leaders across the nation to harness already available local data to determine which groups in which neighborhoods are most vulnerable and how to prevent new infections to save lives,' said research author Vickie Mays, a professor of psychology in the UCLA College and of health policy and management at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health."

[UCLA News Room: 11/18/2020]

CBS Los Angeles: "Study Shows Low-Income LA Neighborhoods Are Most At Risk Of COVID-19"

“'We thought the elderly and people in nursing homes were the most vulnerable, yet we found that lacking a number of social resources contributes to a greater likelihood of getting infected as well,' said research author Vickie Mays, a professor of health policy and management and of psychology at UCLA.

[CBS: 11/18/2020]

Los Angeles Daily News: "UCLA study identifies those most vulnerable to coronavirus so they get vaccine sooner"

“'When the pandemic hit, we were slowed down by a lack of science and a lack of understanding of the ways in which health disparities in the lives of some of our most vulnerable populations made their risk of COVID-19 infection even greater,' said research author Vickie Mays, a professor of health policy and management and of psychology. 'We thought elderly and people in nursing homes were the most vulnerable, yet we found that lacking a number of social resources contributes to a greater likelihood of getting infected as well.'"

[LADN: 11/18/2020]

GlobeSt.com: "Big Cities Will Make a Strong Comeback From the Pandemic"

"Making predictions about the future is always challenging, but predicting how the pandemic will alter our world is an exceptional challenge. So far, those predictions have been wide ranging, but have included a resurgence of suburbs and more work-from-home office models, at least in the near term. At the June 2020 Economic Outlook on residential real estate hosted by the UCLA Anderson Forecast and the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate, academic Richard Florida, however, predicted that cities would make a strong comeback following the pandemic with the potential for positive changes.

'I don’t think this is the end of cities. I think that cities will come back strong,' he said in the virtual conversation. Florida, the director of the Martin Prosperity Institute at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management, global research professor at New York University, and the founder of the Creative Class Group, has a lofty history of making predictions about urban environments. He predicted the rise of urbanization in the early 2000s and the resurgence of the urban core after the 2008 financial crisis. He says that the pandemic will be no different."

[GS: 6/25/2020]

Fox News: "End of quarantine leads to new housing crisis"

"Dr. Paul Ong of UCLA's Center for Neighborhood Knowledge studied the coronavirus crisis and how it's affecting the different communities. He found that African Americans and Latinos are hurting the most and unable to pay rent. His fear?

'By the end of the crisis, you will deeply be in debt, and again, these are the same workers that on financial edge.'"

[FN: 5/29/2020]

Greystone: "UCLA Economist: Market Outlook Post-Coronavirus"

"The COVID-19 pandemic, which has touched every corner of the world and impacted every industry throughout the United States, has left an indelible mark on the economy. Greystone spoke with David Shulman, a senior economist with UCLA Anderson Forecast, part of the University's Anderson School of Management, about his predictions for how COVID-19 may change the commercial real estate landscape.

Q. What is the outlook for CRE in 2020-21? Are there some sectors that will perform better than others?

A. The multifamily sector is better off than property sectors such as retail and hotels. Probably the one sector that may be most impacted is senior housing. The industrial sector is good so far, and for offices there are long-run questions about how businesses will change their configurations or allow more people to work remotely.

The multifamily sector came into the year strong. Rents were going up and most owners were happy campers. The big risk they were facing was regulatory issues such as rent control. The pandemic has exacerbated that with things like the moratorium on evictions New York City's legislature is considering extending the moratorium for the entire year."

[Graystone: 4/30/2020]

Mansion Global: "Sellers in Remote Areas of U.S. Should Consider Keeping Their Listings on the Market"

“'We effectively shut off the economy. This downturn was somewhat voluntary, not driven by economic weakness or fundamentals that were out of whack,' Mr. Habibi said. 'We came from a position of economic strength, and I suspect that once we get the virus under control, we’ll have a reversion back to economic strength.' Sellers have reason to be optimistic, then, though the amount of time it will take for a return to economic normalcy is uncertain. And forecasts can vary by state, depending on the spread of the virus and what kinds of policies have been enacted."

[MG: 4/17/2020]

Los Angeles Times: "WeWork is all about community. Will social distancing crash its business model?"

"But an even bigger problem: Many people are likely to consider proximity to other people risky in the future, said Stuart Gabriel, director of the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate.

'We are going to carry the trauma of this virus risk with us for some time,' Gabriel said. People will avoid 'anything that has the word ‘co’ in front of it — co-working, co-living.'

With WeWork’s occupancy and revenues in decline, Gabriel said he is 'very concerned' about the company’s ability to pay its debts over the next four quarters. A sustained economic contraction could pose a substantial threat to co-working providers because the start-ups that flock to them might fold at a greater rate as funding and demand for their products dry up. Bigger companies that use flex space for supplemental offices also might contract."

[LAT: 4/17/2020]

Investor's Business Daily: "Is The Coronavirus Recession Already Here?"

"The impact of the coronavirus continues to spread through the global economy, with many predicting a recession due to the pandemic. But the UCLA Anderson Forecast says that recession is already here. David Shulman, senior economist for UCLA Anderson Forecast, joined IBD to discuss the economic outlook."

[IBD: 3/24/2020]

Wall Street Journal: "Coronavirus-Triggered Downturn Could Cost Five Million U.S. Jobs"

“'A public health emergency is morphing into an economic emergency,' said David Shulman of the UCLA Anderson School of Management. 'The basic outlines of the economy will be determined more by biology than by economics.'"

[WSJ: 3/21/2020]