UCLA Real Estate Wire

GlobeSt: "UCLA Economist Looks Inside Trumponomics"

“To us, Trumponomics is going to spend a lot more on defense and infrastructure, and he is going to cut taxes a lot,” Shulman tells GlobeSt.com. “So, we are going to end up with a very big deficit by 2018. We view this policy as reckless because the economy is already operating at or very close to full employment. Having some stimulus may be fine, but having this level of stimulus is reckless. The monetary policy is going to be more aggressive, especially with the prospect of more inflation and somewhat higher real growth.”

[GS: 12/14/16]

Wall Street Journal: "Los Angeles Builders Say New Affordable-Housing Rules Will Stifle Construction"

“It’s already a lot of brain damage and work for a project to go through in L.A.,” said Paul Habibi, a professor at UCLA’s Anderson School of Management who also develops and invests in apartments in the city. “It’s really only going to stifle the number of housing units built.”

[WSJ 11/17/16]

LA Times: "What will a President Trump mean for SoCal housing and L.A.'s building boom?"

"To the extent Trump’s policies help economic growth, the commercial real estate market will benefit, even if interest rates rise," said Stuart Gabriel, director of UCLA's Ziman Center for Real Estate.

[LAT 10/11/2016]

Wall Street Journal: "From Mortgages to Payday Loans, How Trump Will Impact Consumer Lending"

"That could change significantly. A Trump administration would likely roll back fair lending enforcement over bank and other lenders’ mortgage operations," said Stuart Gabriel, director at the Ziman Center for Real Estate at the University of California, Los Angeles. “It will be 180 degrees different…these enforcement activities would be of significantly lower priority.”

[WSJ 11/10/16]

The Real Deal: "Hopeful for housing: Everything you need to know about California’s development incentives"

A recent study from UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate found that L.A. housing density has barely increased as a direct impact from zoning changes. By identifying the residential zoning designations of more than 780,000 parcels in 2002 and 2014, author C.J. Gabbe found that “downzoning” — or when an area is allowed less density in 2014 than it was in 12 years ago — occurred nearly as often as “upzoning,” or the opposite; the difference was less than one-quarter of a percent of total land area every year.

In other words, zoning changes that result in higher residential density haven’t offset zoning restrictions.

“My findings show that changes are rare and cover a relatively small land area,” Gabbe, a recent PhD graduate of the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs told TRD. “Change is happening but the pace of this change is not keeping up with the (population) growth that’s coming to Los Angeles.”

[TRD: 9/7/16]

Planetizen: Mapping L.A.'s Zoning Changes Finds Little Room for Upzoning

Steven Sharp shares news of a new study released by the UCLA Anderson Forecast and the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate that puts the planning and development approvals process in context by aggregating all of Los Angeles' zoning changes for specific parcels, which the study describes as "spot zoning."

[P 9/7/16]

GlobeSt: "Is Upzoning Really All That Bad?"

There is a great debate is Los Angeles right now about the best path to growth and greater density. With several pieces of legislation up for vote on one side and developers looking to navigate an outdated masterplan on the other. According to new research from The UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate, upzoning may be unfairly stigmatized, and actually is a good path to accommodate the massive growth expected in the city—approximately 300,000 people expected to move to Los Angeles in the next several decades.

The school “quantitatively examine[d] where and to what extent Los Angeles has already been changing permissible density of its parcels and neighborhoods, finding that upzoning is “much more rare than indicated by the alarm sounded by anti-density advocates. It also shows that upzoning tends to occur in neighborhoods with smaller shares of single-family homeowners, suggesting that political opposition to density has effectively directed the City’s growth.”

[GS 9/2/16]

Bankrate: "The 10 Worst U.S. Cities for Homeowners"

"When households look to purchase a home, they're going to look at many different factors that relate to the quality of the neighborhood, the amenities associated with the living environment, the expected appreciation of the home or lack thereof over the period of ownership, and many other factors," says Stuart A. Gabriel, director of UCLA's Ziman Center for Real Estate. "But, really, even before they can get to the consideration of any of those factors, the issue of affordability arises."

[Bankrate 9/1/16]

Urbanize LA: "When and Where Does Upzoning Actually Happen?"

With spot zoning now under harsh scrutiny, new research published by the UCLA Anderson Forecast and the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate takes a closer look at when and where this practice actually occurs.

The report, authored by urban planner C.J. Gabbe, tracked the zoning of every parcel in Los Angeles between 2002 and 2014. Properties which allowed for more residential density at the end of the 12-year period were determined to be "upzoned," while those which could accommodate less density were regarded as "downzoned."

[ULA 8/31/16]

Urban Land Institute: "Commercial Real Estate’s Slow-Motion Slowdown: E-Commerce and Other Disruptors of the Seven-Year Boom"

UCLA Ziman Center's David Shulman writes, "The combination of a less favorable financial environment with weakening fundamentals arising from increased supply and reduced demand will likely bring to an end the seven-year bull market in commercial real estate."

[ULI 7/18/16]