"The demand for furnished, flexible apartments is largely being driven by the same trends realigning multifamily markets, as Americans move away from big cities and the work-from-home movement takes root...
Those fundamentals will remain challenged by the continuing allure of work-from-home, which UCLA’s Ziman Center for Real Estate predicts will reshape the US housing market well into the future."
"These new location preferences will likely be the norm well after shelter orders are lifted. In fact, UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate’s 2020 Economic Outlook forecasted that work-from-home trends resulting from COVID-19 will reshape the US housing market well into the future."
"The research data demonstrate that neighborhoods characterized by significant clustering of racial and ethnic minorities, low-income households and unmet medical needs are most vulnerable to COVID-19 infection, specifically areas in and around South Los Angeles and the eastern portion of the San Fernando Valley. Communities along the coast and in the northwestern part of the county, which are disproportionately white and higher-income, were found to be the least vulnerable.
'The model we have includes specific resource vulnerabilities that can guide public health officials and local leaders across the nation to harness already available local data to determine which groups in which neighborhoods are most vulnerable and how to prevent new infections to save lives,' said research author Vickie Mays, a professor of psychology in the UCLA College and of health policy and management at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health."
“'We thought the elderly and people in nursing homes were the most vulnerable, yet we found that lacking a number of social resources contributes to a greater likelihood of getting infected as well,' said research author Vickie Mays, a professor of health policy and management and of psychology at UCLA.
“'When the pandemic hit, we were slowed down by a lack of science and a lack of understanding of the ways in which health disparities in the lives of some of our most vulnerable populations made their risk of COVID-19 infection even greater,' said research author Vickie Mays, a professor of health policy and management and of psychology. 'We thought elderly and people in nursing homes were the most vulnerable, yet we found that lacking a number of social resources contributes to a greater likelihood of getting infected as well.'"
"Though RealPage’s data doesn’t indicate that Los Angeles renters are particularly hard-hit by the pandemic compared to renters in other cities, a report published by UCLA’s Lewis Center for
Regional Policy Studies suggests an additional layer to the story: that perhaps LA renters are going to unsustainable lengths to make their rent payments on time.
'Paying on time and in full, in other words, should not be mistaken for ‘having no problems’ paying rent,' the report said.
The report COVID-19 and Renter Distress used data from two sources: the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, which the bureau undertook specifically to gather data on how American households have been affected by the pandemic. It includes questions about late rent payment and a more detailed survey of 1,000 LA County households conducted by a third party for UCLA.
The report was co-authored by USC Lusk Center for Real Estate Director Richard Green and UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs associate professors Michael Lens, Michael Manville and Paavo Monkkonen."
"When the pandemic hit in March, and the economy started to tank, but the housing market so far hasn’t crashed. In August, the median home price in the region reached a record-breaking $600,000, which is up 12% compared to the same time last year. It’s a seller’s market for single family homes.
"But it’s turning into a renter’s market for apartments. Rent prices are falling in Los Angeles. The median price for a one-bedroom last month was around $2,000 a month, which is down 11% from last year.
"How are both of these things happening at the same time? And what about commercial real estate, with a large number of folks no longer needing office space at the moment?"
Guest: Eric Sussman - Professor in accounting and real estate, UCLA’s Anderson School of Management
Host: Steve Chiotakis
Producers: Christian Bordal, Jenna Kagel
[KCRW: 10/06/2020]
"In its recent 2020 Economic Outlook, UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate forecasts that work from home trends resulting from COVID-19 will reshape the US housing market. These changes will likely be the norm well after shelter orders are lifted. 'Suburban housing will once again become a choice solution for both Millennials and empty nesters who very recently returned to an urban
environment,' says David Shulman, Ziman Center senior economist. 'It also means that many workers won’t have to live close to their workplace.'”
“'Last recession the frontiers of new real estate development included East Hollywood and the Arts District. As they were not fully stabilized when the recession hit, they experienced higher levels of distress than certain mature submarkets,' says Paul Habibi, professor of finance and real estate at the UCLA Anderson Graduate School of Management. 'Now it has moved outward to places such as Northeast L.A. The frontiers are often the most vulnerable during a recession. The last to deliver is typically the first to suffer,' says Habibi of areas that include Highland Park, Mount Washington, Glassell Park, and Eagle Rock.
'If you bought a house in Mount Washington in 2014, for example, its appreciation would have been about half as much had you purchased that same home in West Adams.' Non-chain restaurants, shops, and studios have led the evolution in many of these areas, but the full impact of the pandemic shutdown on real estate will take a while to materialize. 'If you think of retail as providing the kindling to ignite real estate developments, that’s in trouble right now outside of daily-needs retail such as grocery and drugstores,' says Habibi."
"UCLA Anderson senior economist David Shulman started his presentation at the UCLA Anderson Forecast June 2020 Economic Outlook with a nursery rhyme: 'It will take time for all of the kings horses and all of the kings men to put the economy back together again.' The economy, according to Shulman, has had a great fall and many parts of it are broken.
'Our view is that this is not going to be a V-shaped recovery. It is going to take time to get back to where the economy was in the fourth quarter of 2019 in terms of GDP and unemployment,' said Shulman in the virtual event. 'The economy has had a very big fall, and a lot of things in the economy have been broken. Even if we got a vaccine, the recovery will not happen right away.'"
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