China’s South-North Water Diversion Project: loud thunder, tiny raindrops

Christopher S. Tang

 

Anything is possible in China.  To build a new metropolis on the outskirts of Lanzhou, one of China's biggest construction firms will spend US$ 4 billion to “move” 700 mountains by levelling them for building construction in 2012.  Besides moving mountains, China is moving rivers too!

In December 2014, China quietly unveiled one of its South-North Water Diversion Project (南水北调工程): a 1,500-mile canal/tunnel that carries water from central China to Beijing.   The goal of this project is to link the Yangzi River (in the South) with the Yellow River (in the North) via tunnels and canals.  This way, the parched north can tap the water from the humid south (Figure).   As of this writing in January 2015, China has spent more than US$ 79 billion, making this project to be one of the most expensive engineering projects in the world. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This project is grand, but the result is likely to be dismal for three reasons:

1. Water supply in the South is polluted.  Since 1978, China’s “grow first, clean up later” mentality has stimulated exponential economic growth, polluting 60% of underground water.[1]  Specifically, the water from the South (Yangzi River) is so polluted that over 400 sewage treatment plants have to be built.  Therefore, when this polluted water arrives Beijing, it may not be potable. 
2. Water supply in the South is declining.  Due to climate change and increasing demand in the south, the south may no longer have enough water to spare. For instance, there was a 5-month drought in Hubei province (South) in 2011, and even the Danjiangkou reservoir (Figure) dropped the “dead water” level, rendering it unusable.
3. Water is too cheap.   Residential consumers in Beijing pay 4 yuan (US$0.66) per cubic meter of water in 2011, which is much lower than other developing countries such as Mexico.  Beijing introduced a new system that makes tap water more expensive the more people use in 2014, but the prices are still far from market levels. Also, there is a widespread extraction of un-tariffed groundwater by city dwellers and farmers, despite plummeting groundwater levels.[2]

When the total water supply is not sufficient to meet demand, the South-North Water Diversion Project is not a long term solution.  The government must confront the real problem: inefficient use of water.  Chinese industry uses ten times more water per unit of production than the average in industrialized countries, according to a report by the World Bank in 2009.[3]   Even though it will be an unpopular measure, the Chinese government should raise the price for industrial use so that there is incentive for factories to reduce water consumption and to develop water recycling systems.  Also, the Chinese government should provide incentive for farmers to use drip irrigation systems to reduce consumption.  At the same time, the Chinese government should encourage local governments to develop desalination plants and collect more rain water locally.

The current grand project focuses on increasing supply in the North by 7% at best.  However, without a concrete plan for reducing demand via efficient use of water, shifting water from the South to the North will not solve the problem. The most expensive project in the world will probably yield the most inefficient outcome.  One Chinese idiom sums it up:  “Loud thunder, but only tiny drops of rain”  < 雷聲大，雨點小>.

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[1] Kaiman, J. “China says more than half of its groundwater is polluted,” The Guardian, April 23, 2014.

 

[2] The Economist. “A canal too far,” September 27, 2014.

[3] The Economist. “A canal too far,” September 27, 2014.