This is the first of several posts I plan to write on the themes of Part III of Global Trends. The first module of this part of the course concerns the rise of new powers, and the concurrent geopolitical uncertainties that will result. In the past, we discussed China's territorial claims in the South China Sea as an example of the growing clout of new powers. Last February, I switched the case to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, for obvious reasons. Right now, that conflict is still very much in the news as Ukraine launches a counteroffensive. But the issue of a possible invasion of Taiwan by mainland China is at the forefront of observers' concerns.
Is China likely to make a move on Taiwan anytime soon? A pair of articles in the WSJ and in Bloomberg make the case for alternative points of view. In the WSJ, Hal Brands and Michael Beckley, two academics, argue in the affirmative in the journal's latest Saturday Essay. They point to the urgency of making plans for the worst - in particular to help Taiwan build up its military capabilities, to prepare for a war involving the US in the Pacific, and to start designing economic sanctions against China in case of an attack.
Over at Bloomberg, Admiral James Stavridis, a former supreme allied commander of NATO, thinks instead that we are years away from a conflict involving Taiwan. He goes through five major reasons for why this is the case.
These two articles illustrates the old Latin adage "si vis pacem, para bellum": if you want peace, prepare for war. They both agree that aggressive contingency planning needs to occur now to deter a conflict. They agree that a reunification with Taiwan is resolutely part of China's ambitions. They agree that if such a reunification occurs through conflict, it will be an immensely costly affair for China, for the US and for the world. Their disagreement is mostly over the timing of a possible attack, and over the urgency of the situation. However your views align, there is no doubt that this issue should be a major source of concern for the months and years to come.