A debate is currently raging in political and policy circles as to whether the US is in a recession. A recession is conventionally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP. The first quarter of 2022 showed real GDP growth at -1.6% (at an annualized rate), and the second quarter had real GDP growth at -0.9%. So by this definition, the US is in recession.
However, this is not the only definition of recessions. A more wonkish definition is that of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER has a Business Cycle Dating Committee. This is not an online dating service for economists (!), but a group of top economists charged with pinpointing the months when a recession begins and ends. The committee looks at a variety of indicators, including labor market indicators, to make this determination. It is not in a hurry, so we usually find out about the precise dates several months after a recession begins. For instance, the last time the committee called a peak in economic activity was on June 8, 2020. It did not call a trough until July 19, 2021. That was for the recession that spanned February-April of 2020 (the shortest recession on record for the US). So it took the committee 3 months after the peak to call a peak, and 15 months after the trough to call a trough. And of course, since the committee looks at many indicators, everything is subject for debate: it is not as clear-cut a definition as that based on two quarters of negative real GDP growth. See here for details, especially the sentences: "The determination of the months of peaks and troughs is based on a range of monthly measures of aggregate real economic activity published by the federal statistical agencies. These include real personal income less transfers (PILT), nonfarm payroll employment, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes, employment as measured by the household survey, and industrial production. There is no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions."
[Full disclosure: I have been a member of the NBER for 20 years; though of course I do not sit on the Business Cycle Dating Committee!]
Bloomberg recently looked at 6 indicators mentioned in the quote above. Based on these indicators, it is unlikely that the NBER will determine that we are currently in a recession, because only one of the six indicators (wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes) has shown signs of a sustained decline in the first 6 months of 2022. Instead, it is probable that we are seeing a divergence between the conventional definition of a recession and the NBER's definition.
If I had to guess, I would probably venture that we are not yet in a recession. I think the conventional definition is likely to be misleading in a time of inflation. Small errors in the measurement of inflation, or in the measurement of nominal GDP growth, when inflation is around 9%, can have big effects on real GDP. Recall that real GDP growth is, roughly, nominal GDP growth minus the rate of inflation (as measured using the GDP deflator). If both nominal GDP and inflation are mismeasured in some ways, small mistakes in their rates of growth can put you slightly above 0% real growth or slightly below (see here for details). We will see what the BEAs revisions to both nominal GDP growth and the GDP deflator end up being in the months to come. Even small revisions could change the picture from recession to expansion (or make the negative numbers even worse). This is why the NBER waits so long to decide, and looks at various indicators rather than just one: one needs reliable data to make these kinds of calls.
In the end, these expert debates aren't really that important. What is clear is that real growth has slowed considerably. And, with the Fed aggressively raising interest rates, it would not be surprising if we ended up in a true recession over the next few months. In fact, the whole point of raising interest rates is to slow down demand, and therefore growth.