Guest Blogging: Misha Galashin on the Popularity of the Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

I am happy to again welcome Misha as a guest blogger here - he has unique expertise on the current situation in Russia and Ukraine. Below he opines on a subject we have wondered about in class, namely the issue of the popularity of the war in Ukraine among the Russian population:

We have been discussing how one could gauge the Russian population's attitude toward the war in Ukraine. I have come across a survey commissioned by Maxim Katz, a pro-democratic Russian politician. The study uses a representative phone survey of 2000 Russians and is performed by one of the few reliable firms. 

The first graph shows that an overwhelming majority of Russians (88%) favor maintaining friendly relationships with Ukraine.

The second graph shows the overall support for the war effort as well as the variation of support by other attitudes and by age. When looking at the graphs one should remember that respondents are likely to exaggerate their support. The reason is low trust in the anonymity of surveys and a long history of equating pacifist sentiments with treason. Given this, the reported 58.8% support (Panel A) is actually not that high, but it is way too high given the friendly sentiment expressed above.

The gradients by blame attribution, watching Putin's address, attitude to Soviet borders, and age shed light on this puzzle. The results are consistent with the mechanisms that we have discussed in class: propaganda and nostalgia. One could view watching Putin's address (Panel C) as a proxy for the general consumption of televised news and attributing blame for the conflict to the West as buy-in to the translated position. For example, there is a 51 percentage point difference between respondents who blame the West for the conflict and those who don't (74.7% vs 24.1%). Similarly, the split by question on the USSR borders is consistent with an explanation based on Soviet nostalgia. Finally, Panel E suggests that these mechanisms are least pronounced for younger cohorts (there are similar patterns for education and urbanization). Anecdotally, the propaganda is portraying the invasion as a friendly effort to help the Ukrainian people get rid of corrupt elites and Nazis and them get back home to the Russian camp.

It is extremely hard to say where things go from there. On the one hand, it looks now that the Russian people were not alone in being misguided: as Paul Krugman points out, the invasion decision was delusional even from Putin's selfish point of view. What should have been yet another "splendid little war" turns out to be a human catastrophe unseen in Russian recent history, both for the invaded and for the invaders. One could expect that the support for the war would plummet and the regime collapse as the Russian soldiers' death toll, war crime reports, and effects of sanctions accumulate. On the other hand, the regime hits back hard: the last independent media sources are closed, Facebook and Twitter are blocked (see my friend and colleague Ashley Blum's account at the LA times). A law banning "fake information about Russian armed forces" was passed on Thursday (this post would likely be enough for a criminal charge under the regulation). The threat of repression, as well as the economic decay, is provoking a mass exodus of anti-war, globalist Russians. For example, Maxim Katz, the politician behind the poll above, has left Russia this week. Unfortunately, for Russia, Ukraine, and the world, this struggle between reality and Putin's multiverse might take months or even years to resolve.

Comments

[Pauline Yang]

First, I wanted to thank Misha for providing insight into the support that Russians have for the war. It is both surprising to me and reassuring that 88% of Russians favor maintaining friendly relationships with Ukraine.

One thing I wanted to comment on was how the "threat of repression, as well as the economic decay, is provoking a mass exodus of anti-war, globalist Russians." I thought that was really interesting and telling of the support for the war, whether it's due to anti-war beliefs or fear of the impact of the war against their livelihood.

This article from The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/people-leaving-russia-ukraine-war) reports that Russians or people living in Russia are seeking to leave, due to the economic uncertainties. Another critical reason is due to rumors that Russia could enact Martial law. As the article mentions, this would be unprecedented in modern Russian history, and could result in "mass mobilization of the male population as well as the closure of borders, according to an official document describing the law." The article also provides some first hand accounts of Russians who left, with one man being questioned extensively by Russian officials. Although there is already a limited number of flights due to restrictions, it will be interesting to see if Russia imposes other measures to prevent their citizens from leaving the country or will follow through with the threat of Martial law.

[Donald Zelaya]

This is a truly thought provoking article and assessment of the current situation we find ourselves globally. I am of the mind that this war will ultimately lessen Putin's grip on power. I completely agree with your comment "One could expect that the support for the war would plummet and the regime collapse as the Russian soldiers' death toll, war crime reports, and effects of sanctions accumulate". The way that the West has rallied around a comprehensive strategy was likely not part of the calculus for Putin.

I do think this war challenges the concept of liberal peace theory. We have other nations hesitant to condemn the war because of the economic ties to Russia or not wanting to call out Putin's politics for fear of having their own governments called out. It will be challenging journey for the people caught up in this conflict and one that will likely take a long time to resolve if it ever does.