A great article in the Wall Street Journal describes the military situation on the ground in Ukraine. The maps are particularly telling. The bottom line is that Russia has an overwhelming military advantage, as it surrounds Ukraine on three sides with massive superiority in terms of numbers and equipment. As the article describes, the issue is not whether Russia can take Ukraine, but whether, once taken, it can bear the cost of a lengthy occupation in the face of continued resistance. Another issue is whether Russia is willing to bear the cost of the massive sanctions that will come its way if it invades Ukraine.
Some point out that the likely increase in the price of hydrocarbons in the event of an invasion could benefit rather than hurt Russia, so that the sanctions may be ineffective. I am not so sure. It depends on whether Russia can find alternative destinations for its production, because the price increase will come from Russia being shut out from some very lucrative markets (a contraction in the aggregate supply of oil). One obvious destination would be China, but Russian oil is already the leading source of China's imports, ahead of Saudi Arabia and Angola, so it is not clear that China will want to depend even more on Russian oil. Well-designed sanctions could cripple Russia's already fragile economy, but Putin may not see that as a major drawback. Tough times that can be blamed on foreign actions have a way of strengthening populist and autocratic leaders.
And by the way, the US really thinks an invasion is imminent. Here is a report that the US embassy in Kiev is being shut down. On the other hand, here is a more optimistic take. I suppose one should prepare for the worst and hope for the best. At any rate, what a week to be discussing this case in class!
If Russia doesn't end up invading, and the whole thing is a bluff what is the upside to Russia? Does this mean that Ukraine doesn't end up joining NATO and Putin gains influence?
Posted by: Michael Andrawis | 02/16/2022 at 05:48 PM