« Where Has All the Cash Gone? | Main | US Tech Companies and the Hong Kong National-Security Law »

07/05/2020

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

A lot has been made of the idea of the U.S. and China falling into a “Thucydides Trap” scenario but I wonder if India and China are more at risk. Considering the recent history of border wars, skirmishes, and standoffs over the last 80 or so years, there is probably some built in distrust and enmity in that relationship. On top of that, I wonder if China views India as a threat to its energy supply because by virtue of geography India seems able to threaten energy shipments to China from the Persian Gulf in the Indian Ocean if it wanted to. I’d also be interested in knowing how India perceives the Belt & Road Initiative, particularly China’s acquisition of a port in Sri Lanka and cultivation of an extremely close military alliance with Pakistan. It wouldn’t surprise me if India felt encircled, although if India moves closer to the U.S., China may end up feeling the same way.

Fortunately, it seems like economic integration between them had been increasing in recent years, at least prior to the latest border incident. Hopefully, that trend continues and leads to cooperation in other areas.

India and China Border disputes haven't been new and there have been past instances of border fighting. (1962, 1967, 2018, 2020). An important aspect of the relationship between China and India is that China is still the dominant trade partner with India - https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/moneycontrol-research/how-dependent-is-india-on-china-here-is-what-trade-data-reveals-5346201.html. While at this moment there is a heightened tension in the relations between the 2 big Asian neighbors, but they will eventually prove to be aberrant because of their inter dependencies and history (Harvard article - https://hbr.org/2007/12/china-india-the-power-of-two).
India is shifting its trade outlook by investing lot of "Make in India" campaign,it might take significant time for India to be at par with China in terms of its trade. At present India's growing consumers base is creating a demand that Indian manufacturers cannot fulfill and hence the country has to rely on imported products. It might take more sweeping reforms from the India's government in addition to the Make in India and Self-reliant campaigns. The structural shift in vocational courses would be the key and the government has shown commitment towards by taking steps. A recent step of revamping the education policy underscores this will - https://www.hindustantimes.com/education/new-education-policy-2020-live-updates-important-takeaways/story-yYm1QaeNyFW4uTTU3g9bJO.html

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been saved. Comments are moderated and will not appear until approved by the author. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear until the author has approved them.

Your Information

(Name and email address are required. Email address will not be displayed with the comment.)