UCLA Anderson Forecast’s third quarterly report in 2017 anticipates modest growth in real GDP with gains in employment. On a national level, a number of pro-growth economic policies involving proposed tax cuts, investment in infrastructure and regulatory relief were expected to be initiated this year by the new administration in Washington, D.C., but few have transpired. Although there has been some progress on the regulatory front, challenges remain on a host of issues, including immigration, health care and trade policies. In California, the forecast is slightly lower, reflecting the administration’s difficulties in getting proposals passed.
On Wednesday, September 27, the UCLA Anderson Forecast examines the Death and Life of Retail in America, with a keynote by Gary Schoenfeld, former CEO of Pacific Sunwear and Vans Inc., and a panel of e-commerce experts. UCLA Anderson Forecast Economist William Yu examined the decline in employment in the retail industry across the country and found that despite continued economic expansion, employment in this sector declined by 29,000 in one year. What has been the second largest private-sector employer in the U.S. has now dropped to the fourth largest.
With an increase in online shopping and more stores using automated checkout in place of cashiers, Yu predicts retail might “become the next shrinking sector in terms of jobs over the next few decades.”