
The UCLA Anderson Forecast’s quarterly conference takes place on Thursday, March 12, 2015, in Culver City. In addition to a number of panel discussions that focus on the entertainment industry, Peter Guber, CEO of Mandalay Entertainment, will engage in a keynote conversation with UCLA Anderson Professor Sanjay Sood.

UCLA Anderson Forecast’s first quarterly report for the United States economy indicates that the nation “looks like an island of stability in a very volatile world.” The implication is that the U.S. is still on track for 3% GDP growth for the next two years, despite slow growth and currency devaluations throughout much of the rest of the developed world. Payroll employment is expected to increase at a 250,000-per-month pace and the national unemployment rate will hit 5% by year’s end.
UCLA Anderson Forecast Senior Economist David Shulman says that despite weak global growth and the very strong U.S. dollar the (national) economy remains on a 3% growth path for real GDP over the next two years, which will bring the unemployment rate down to 5% by the end of this year. “While inflation is being temporarily suppressed by the drop in oil prices,” Shulman says, “it will soon be running above 2% as oil prices gradually recover.” He says that the near term downside for the U.S. economy will come from a collapse in the capital spending associated with oil and gas production, while housing starts will advance more quickly than previously predicted.
The California forecast is not much changed in the three months since the last release, and calls for steady gains in employment through 2017. A slightly weaker first and second quarter for 2015 is anticipated for California, which will be offset by stronger third and fourth quarters. “The increase in U.S. growth rates from construction, automobiles, and business investment as well as higher consumer demand will continue to fuel our local economy,” says Senior Economist Jerry Nickelsburg, author of the California forecast.
The Forecast’s March publication includes two additional research reports: an examination of the labor issues that have beset Southern California’s ports; and a look at the entertainment industry as it relates to the Los Angeles economy.
Economist William Yu examined the entertainment industry and its impact on the Los Angeles economy and found that from 2001 to 2013, the industry in Los Angeles grew by 22% in terms of total employee compensation. Meanwhile, the nationwide compensation for the industry grew 33% and its total output by 80%. While the modest growth of Hollywood during this period is higher than the Los Angeles economy overall, the growth is lower than other star industries in other major metros, such as Silicon Valley’s high-tech sector.
Read the press release
Full list of Forecast speakers:
Edward Leamer, Director, UCLA Anderson Forecast
David Shulman, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Jerry Nickelsburg, Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
William Yu, Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Sanjay Sood, Professor of Marketing, UCLA Anderson School of Management
Teri Schwartz, Dean, UCLA School of Theater, Film and Television
Lincoln Wallen, CTO, Dreamworks Animation SKG
Cathy Pellow, Owner/Manager, Sargent House
Lori Kozlowski, Editorial Director, Atom Factory & Former Correspondent, Variety and Forbes
Bruce Doering, Executive Director, International Cinematographers Guild
Amy Lemisch, Executive Director, California Film Commission
Kenneth Ziffren, Founding Partner, Ziffren Brittenham, Chairman of the Entertainment & Media Law Program, UCLA School of Law
Brian Farrell, Former Chairman and CEO, THQ
Erich Schwartzel, Reporter, Wall Street Journal