UCLA Anderson’s Eric Sussman says bubble fears might be
overblown.
The housing market is growing, even hitting a record
one-month increase, and experts—and the media—are beginning to ask: “Are we on
the cusp of a new housing bubble?”
The April Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price
Indices showed an average home-price increase of 11.6% and 12.1% for its 10-
and 20-City Composites, respectively. In fact, year-over-year returns were
positive for all 20 cities and both Composites. Los Angeles’ housing prices
grew a hefty 18.8% over the past year, lagging just behind the more than 20%
gains in Atlanta, Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Francisco.
“The 10- and 20-City Composites posted their highest monthly
gains in the history of S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices,” said David M.
Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a
release. “Thirteen cities posted monthly increases of over two percentage
points, with San Francisco leading at 4.9%.”
But, when it comes to creating a housing bubble, Eric
Sussman, senior lecturer in accounting and real estate at UCLA Anderson, says
it takes more than a little tilt to the “demand” side of supply and demand. “I
wouldn’t call it a bubble. A bubble to me includes, and deals with,
speculation, folks who ultimately have no business investing in a certain
market, but nevertheless do so. I don’t think you have that now,” he says. “Now,
the recent price increases aren’t sustainable, but it’s not a bubble. It lacks that
rampant speculation.”
He says this bump in real estate values reflects simple
economic reality. “On the demand side you have increasing, or at least
stabilizing, consumer confidence, the recovery of the stock market, significant
institutional-acquisition activity, relatively low interest rates, and high
rental rates,” he says. “On the supply side, people weren’t building for the
past few years, and in some markets you don’t have a lot of supply available
anyway. So, prices are going up. It’s kind of econ 101.”
That supply-side pressure is especially noticeable in cities
like Los Angeles. “You have what amounts to limited supply—there’s not really
much land left to build on—and growing demand,” Sussman says. “Where can you go
to build? Prices are going to go higher.”
According to Sussman, much of the U.S. demand has been
driven by institutional investors looking to cash in on lower housing prices, a
tough mortgage climate and a corresponding increase in rental rates, which is
not a workable model. “At the end of the day, unless we have real sustainable
economic growth and growth in wages, you still have household incomes that are
too low to create sustainable housing demand,” he says.
Still, Sussman calls housing market price hikes a significant
part of economic growth, a sign of consumer confidence and a necessary
underpinning of the economy. “Price increases are good at some level,” he says.
“So much of economic and consumptive behavior is a continual loop. It feeds on itself.”
Sussman says thinking about the real estate market is
probably better done from a bird’s eye perspective with long-term goals firmly
in mind. “If you’re going to buy, make sure you’ll be there for five years at
least. Transaction costs are too high. Market uncertainty still exists,” he
says. This perspective gives historical value to any real estate decision.
“Even if you bought in 2006, if you planned on owning for 30 years, it will
likely still prove a good decision,” he says.
And, while people want to get in and grasp that American,
home-owning ideal before interest rates are too high, he cautions against
jumping too eagerly. “It’s a business decision,” he says. “It has to be
dispassionate."
Ultimately, he uses an analogy recognizable to
many Angelenos. “It’s like body surfing: Should I ride that wave or duck under
it?” he says. “This isn’t going to turn into a tidal wave. We’re not there. I’m
of the mindset that you shouldn’t ride this wave in, but wait.”