UCLA Anderson Forecast Director Ed Leamer has been making the media rounds lately, explaining to folks why the U.S. economy is growing -- but not recovering. Those who follow this blog and the Anderson Forecast know tale Leamer is telling by now; that the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is growing at a "normal" rate in the 2-3% range, but that a recovery requires 5-6% growth in order for the economy to "return to trend" and, essentially, get to where it would have been had there not been a recession in the first place.
One factor creating the gap between normal growth and recovery growth is in employment, where Leamer estimates millions of jobs were lost for good as U.S. workers compete with robots, technology and foreign workers willing to do the same work for less money. These jobs are permanently lost and these workers will need retraining to find work in other sectors.
In the interview below with KNBC's Conan Nolan, Leamer offers the Forecast's take on the California economy (along with some thoughts on the national economy). Leamer echoes his colleague, Forecast Senior Economist Jerry Nickeslburg in describing how continuing problems in the housing and construction sectors are hitting inland California more than the coast.
KNBC divided the interview into two parts. Here is part two: